We are all
afraid of the Boogeyman in one way or another. It’s the uncertainty of what is
waiting for us that scares us.
The Boogeyman - Doing business in Brazil
But if we know that the Boogeyman weighs 88kg, has a height of 1,6m, hates garlic and sunlight and only eats once a day, somehow it´s not that scary anymore.
With
regards to you starting up or investing in Brazil we at AA RISK want to take
that fear of the uncertainty away, quantify for you the risk, and take you to see
the Boogeyman (the market) as soon as possible. That’s what we are here for.
The Brazilian Boogeyman:
Boom Cycles
When I
moved to Brazil in 2007 at the auge of the global commodity boom for Brazil
there was no Boogeyman. Almost everything you did was positive. That didn´t
mean that there were no issues or negatives to consider, its just that the
growth cycle far outweighed these factors temporarily.
Brazil Economic Crises
The world
suffered an economic crisis in 2008-2009. For Brazil that crises only really arrived
in 2013 as cheap credit became available, and local consumption was still
huge on the back of that boom cycle. In
2014 the government built or reformed 12 stadiums for the World Cup with 8 now
practically abandoned. Then Brazil had the Olympics in 2016 with the Olympic
village and Olympic stadiums all practically abandoned now also. A very wise Brazilian
politician used to say ´´steal but at least build´´. And both of these events ended
up triggering an economic crisis in Brazil that is still raging into and post COVID.
The Boogeyman Factors for Brazil
1-Portuguese
For a lot of
foreigners, the expectation to have to communicate in Portuguese can be daunting.
However, most companies now have English as a requirement to know or for work. There
is still a small gap in technical terms or in the depth of the topic that can
lead to misunderstandings.
2-Bureaucracy
Brazil has
improved significantly in this respect. If we had to estimate lets say that up
to early 2000s it was 8/10 bad. Mid 2010 to 2018 7/10 bad. But its now about
6/10 compared lets say to a USA at 3/10. The trick here is always to understand
the right sequence in which to do things. And in real terms what is necessary
to do first. We believe you need to get to the marketplace first then structure
back from there.
3-Latin America Corruption
Corruption
across LATAM is still an issue. In business dealings you need to protect your
interests and investment. A lot of companies arrive paying well in Dollars to
leave 3-5 years later with no returns and a big labor liability bill to pay. So
lets say that on a personal level people are very friendly but ethically you will
still find that number 1 comes first then doing the right thing. A lot of the
time in Brazil corruption means on a personal level people not being transparent
or passing incorrect information. Right down to a Curriculum Vitae that if you
read you will be convinced they are the next Elon Musk.
Speaking of
which we recently did some work on the Tesla name. Tesla.com.br was bought as a
domain in Brazil in 2017. By a IT company that used to be called by another
name. They shut down the previous IT company and name and now operate under the
Tesla Communications and Technology name. If you buy a famous domain and that
company decides to setup in your country. You will be forced to sell the domain
to that company that operates notoriously under that name. But if your business
is also called that name. Well, now we are talking another situation in order for
you to setup in Brazil under your notorious company name and use the local
domain. Whereas to buy a domain in a
forced sale might be US$1000. To now buy the rights back to use the Tesla name in Brazil and
especially as they are both ´´technology´´ companies is going to probably cost millions
of dollars. Please note we are not saying this company has done anything wrong. We are just saying that the Tesla name is now not available in Brazil to Elon Musk without a significant investment.
4-Dollar exchange Rate
A lot of
companies invest during the boom cycles or when the economy of that country is
doing well with significant demand already happening. The problem with that is you
are buying at the high Dollar exchange rate. When one of our partners´s Alex
arrived in Brazil the rate was RS$2.50 to the US$1. Its currently at about
R$5,50 to US$1. Any sell off or dividends or company profit distribution will
be affected massively cashing out now. Especially on the back end of the
economic crises. So, we recommend buying in when the rate is favorable to the
Dollar investment. Which is now.
In Brief
Ah, you are
waiting for the Embassy and that lawyer to get back to you first? AA Risk believes
that Google talks and Market Research reports walk. And we have excellent legal
partners to cover you for any eventuality. Come and talk to us.
Comments
Post a Comment